Survivorship Bias (from You Are Not So Smart blog)

Read Survivorship Bias: “The military looked at the bombers that had returned from enemy territory. They recorded where those planes had taken the most damage. Over and over again, they saw the bullet holes tended to accumulate along the wings, around the tail gunner, and down the center of the body. Wings. Body. Tail gunner. Considering this information, where would you put the extra armor? Naturally, the commanders wanted to put the thicker protection where they could clearly see the most damage, where the holes clustered. But Wald said no, that would be precisely the wrong decision. Putting the armor there wouldn’t improve their chances at all. “

Indeed. Thinks are so clear when someone has drawn your attention to it.

What I am missing that I don’t even begin to think about?

Great read from the blog You are Not So Smart